Ep #36: Finding Gems In The Property Market (Part I)

hi thank you for coming for my
presentation this afternoon I want to know who are the ones who are following
my blog my youtube channel my facebook page or have read my book can you have a show
of hands very good and thank you for helping to
vote for your favorite topic for me to cover this afternoon finding germs in the
property market but actually the one that I prefer to cover is the naked truth of
Singapore property pornography but I also realize that the organizer doesn’t restrict the admission of visitors under the age of 18 so for that purpose I’m
going to cover that topic in my blog in the next blog post I’m not working in the
property line I am a fellow property buyer and investor and for the past 18
years I have been doing a lot of property investment because that’s my
hobby so through the years I have learned something about how to play this game
and I realized that there are a lot of people who lost a lot of money but they
kept quiet but there are far more people who claim that they have built their wealth through property investment they’re doing so because they want some people to join
them in the property line or they want to sell you properties but in reality I
actually know a lot of people who make real money from properties they keep low
profile and they keep quiet and I hardly find any savvy property investors
who come out to tell strangers and share with them what they’re buying into why are there a lot of germs in a soft market and where are they
whenever the market is soft you’ll see a lot of people advertising in places like
Facebook to tell you that there are hidden germs in this market for example
I have talked about it in my youtube channel that they will tell you that you
can sell off your fully paid hdb flat and by 2 private properties the husband one and the
wife another one so that they can make 3 commissions from you or you can own
multiple properties with little or no money down by buying together with other people or
you can make fifty thousand passive income per month that’s what they’re doing
today and you can do the same way because they have secrets to share with
you or another way to do it is that they would advertise there’s a property it’s a
gem because it will give you x percent return which is extra high in this
market and it’s commercial property and if they can only buy and share the cost
with the others but actually they have a friend who actually rent it above market
price and then after you buy into it suddenly the tenant decides not to continue the lease and you’re left try to find somebody in the market willing to pay
the market price and you can’t get out of it
because the return is no longer high why you will see a lot of these kind
of hidden gems or property secrets or get-rich-quick programs in a soft market
because the market is bad if you look at this non-landed private residential quarterly volume and average per square foot price from the first quarter of 2009 to the third
quarter of 2019 you will see that in reality for our recent volumes in the last few
quarters we are still far from the short rebound in 2017 and 2018 and we are
a far cry from the heydays of 2010 to 2013 so the market is really bad
let’s look at the number of property transactions in a single month we choose
July this year because it’s not ghost month and it’s not school holiday and we
have 1556 new sale in that month because of launch of a new EC which is the
highest level for the year and then we take the resale and rent transactions
of non-landed private residential properties and hdb flats from SRX flash reports
because they’re famous for adding this mysterious additional element of flash
estimate which they try to predict the number of caveats not logged with SLA so
it’s already higher and then for landed resale and rental transactions we get it from 99.co which is basically from URA so for the whole month of July
for new sale, resale, rental of private homes and hdb flats we only have a total of how many a little bit more than 12 thousand
transactions so how many property agents do we have in Singapore as of first of
January this year we have 29,000 what does that mean let’s forget the fact
that the most active property agents will close more than one
deal they close many deals in a month let’s assume each property agent only close one deal in a
month we still have sixteen thousand eight hundred and eighty eight property
agents or 58 percent property agents who have done no deal for the whole month so what are they eating but the spokespersons of the
property agencies keep telling the media that there’s still healthy demand for
the home buyers and the property market is still resilient if that’s so then why are
the sales reports so bad for ERA for q1 the net profit slides 70 percent and last
quarter it falls 57 percent for PropNex the net earnings is 67.6 percent decline and q2 the revenue drops 24 percent and profit slides 12 percent so why are they contradicting
themselves in what they are telling the media compared with their poor sales results why most buyers only settle for average deals because most people buy when they have the need when they get married when
you have kids when their kids need to go to good schools and they move to a
particular district then they need to buy or they have the money and extra
cash and they feel itchy so telling people I’m putting my spare cash to buy an
investment property sounds much better than telling people I just bought a nice
sports car or to go for overseas vacation but personally I feel that
if you spend your spare cash on an overseas vacation is far better than buying private property in this market at least you won’t lose money
or they buy because they listen to what the media is saying or what the property
agents are talking about because of all these sales talk they think maybe it’s
good to buy a property too or some people they have some free time and then
they join others at this new launch preview or the first weekend launch because they
see a lot of other people who are also buying so they for fear of missing out
they also rush in to buy I have been to hundreds of second-hand property flat viewings and I have been to more than 100 new launch in this market and I’ve seen a
lot of people who bought very lousy properties those that I don’t think
anybody want to buy because the fengshui is very bad it’s wrong direction wrong
facing everything is wrong but they don’t understand why because there are a lot of new launch traps and tricks the property developers and agents
won’t tell them or maybe the agents don’t even know so that’s why I’ve been
running a workshop the 9th time running already it’s my most popular workshop to
tell people that according to my experience what you can do is you
walk into a sales gallery in five minutes time by looking at the model of
the development you should be able to tell which block or which unit is the
best according to the location direction and facing and any undesirable objects
next to the development and what are the implications and for all these layout plans you should be able to tell which one is the best by the way because I
kaypoh that’s why I went into the hdb website to look at the bto new launches
and find out that all the layout plans for some projects are really good but
some of them are really lousy so I wonder whether it’s the same person or
same team doing the layout plan because it makes all the difference
some of them are good some of them are very bad some of them really have the taboos
of all the halls or the living halls and bedrooms some of them are really very
good but I guess most of the people don’t know they just buy but buying a home is
for well being of you yourself your family and your loved ones I do think
that if you really love your family you should learn how to identify a good quality property compared with a bad one some people claim that they can actually
from your date of birth they will know your wealth but I’m even better I
can tell from your NRIC whether you have bought private properties in
the last few years or going to buy one soon do you know that there’s a secret code
in your NRIC even this kind of things even property agents don’t know so
now you take out your IC I teach you how to read this is my personal one so you take out your IC I show
you how to read the secret code to show that whether you have bought properties or you would be able to buy one it’s very easy okay look at this if you have a red
IC and you’re buying the first one then you may have already bought the
last few years or you’re going to buy one because you don’t have to pay ABSD but if you’re like me buying the second or third one requires you
to pay 12% to 15% more in stamp duties not for me if you’re
holding a blue IC too bad even the first property or second doesn’t
matter you have to pay ABSD of 5% to 15% if you’re holding a green one
even worse you have to straight away pay 20% so people ask me why are you not buying
why are you so negative if I have to pay 4% buyer stamp duty and I have to pay
additional 12 to 15% or 12 to 20% ABSD and if I sell within 3 years
I have to pay 4 to 12% seller stamp duty why am I buying
the Inland Revenue won’t even have to send me a thank you letter to thank me for
my generous contribution ever since I become a Singapore citizen in 2002 I
have been a very good girl I mean I have been very good citizen whatever
the government asked us to do I just followed so that’s why
in the mid-2000s when the government come up with stimulating measures the loan to value increased to 90% I immediately looked at all my savings and take everything from my
cpf to go there to the market to buy private homes to support the government
to revive the poverty market but when the government started introducing
cooling measures from September 2009 and after 8 rounds all the way to 2013
June I started selling my properties my investment properties one by one and
in 2017 our minister Lawrence Wong cautious home buyers amid property rebound and when MAS Ravi Menon said there’s euphoria in Singapore property
market and call for caution I held back my horses and I refrained from buying
properties I don’t know about the hdb market because I’m not familiar with
that but for private homes if you follow exactly what the government ask you
to do and listen to the government I mean not listening to the
property developers the property agencies mortgage banks industry stakeholders or
analysts or the media listening to the government every time from my own
experience it proves to be a smart move so if you promise to be a good boy
a good girl by the end of year you will be promised christmas presents by the Santa Claus which is really nice so any time just take the hint from the government this week there’s a property news headlines that read two quarters of rises in
private home prices raise question of cooling measures wow this is a very
dangerous news headline especially right before the time of the next
election when I see this kind of dangerous headline my heart really skip a beat then
I get the hint do you get that

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